Here we are. It’s 2008 and a new baseball season is quickly
approaching. It’s the time of year where many fantasy owners dust off their
spreadsheets to begin their preparation or search the web frantically in search
of rankings, cheat sheets and sleepers. Although it may be slightly premature,
I am going to share my early 2008 value picks. Of course, we’re 6 weeks away
from the beginning of the season and most drafts won’t begin until mid March,
but let’s have some fun with it. Here are some guys that should out perform
their ADP & supply fantasy owners with plenty of value. 2008 projections
are below each player.
Catcher / Geovany Soto (Cubs) – Soto exploded onto
the scene in 2007 hitting 0.353 for AAA Iowa. The success continued during
a September call-up as he hit 0.389 in 54 at bats. More impressively is his
sudden power surge. Soto swatted 29 baseballs into the stands between Iowa
and Chicago and has quickly become a favorite of Sweet Lou. Owners should
somewhat temper expectations however. Before 2007, Soto had never shown this
type of production. However, a catcher’s bat is normally the last thing to
come around. The emphasis with a young catcher is defense and staff handling.
So it is possible that he has simply turned a corner. It’s hard to imagine
anyone hitting 29 homers and batting 0.360 on accident.
| AB |
H |
AVG |
HR |
RBI |
R |
SB |
OBP |
| 470 |
148 |
0.315 |
16 |
53 |
51 |
0 |
0.352 |
First Base / James Loney (Dodgers) – The Dodgers keep
turning out prospects and this season, it could be Loney’s turn to turn some
heads. He has been labeled with the ‘developing power’ tag, but last season
should be an indication that it is already here. In 448 career at bats, Loney
has already slugged 19 homers. So the 20 HR power is already there. The real
value lies in his ability to knock in runs and turn in high batting averages.
He hit 0.331 in LA last season after hitting 0.380 for AAA Las Vegas in 2006.
At the very least, expect Todd Helton type numbers. His ceiling is much higher.
| AB |
H |
AVG |
HR |
RBI |
R |
SB |
OBP |
| 520 |
165 |
0.317 |
22 |
90 |
81 |
1 |
0.370 |
Second Base / Kelly Johnson (Braves) - I have advised
people for 3+ years now that this guy could swing a bat. After finally staying
healthy for a full season, he proved me right. With a full MLB season under
his belt, he will entire the 2008 season without the stress of learning a
new position and should be very relaxed. The departure of Edgar Renteria means
that he will not be sharing time with Yunel Escobar this season. Those worried
about his at bats against lefties need not fret. Johnson still hit 0.272 off
southpaws last year and has shown the ability his entire career. Feel confident
adding him as your #1 second baseman once the more overhyped players are off
the board, especially in leagues that reward OBP.
| AB |
H |
AVG |
HR |
RBI |
R |
SB |
OBP |
| 540 |
152 |
0.282 |
18 |
72 |
88 |
8 |
0.370 |
Third Base / Edwin Encarnacion (Reds) – After a terrible
start to his 2007 season, Edwin was demoted to AAA, but returned with a bang
after the All-Star break. He posted an OPS of 0.847 after the break with 10
homers & 14 doubles while hitting 0.309 in the process. Batting in that
lineup with that ballpark, Edwin should see continued success in 2008.
| AB |
H |
AVG |
HR |
RBI |
R |
SB |
OBP |
| 525 |
154 |
0.293 |
22 |
84 |
75 |
11 |
0.353 |
Third Base / Kevin Kouzmanoff (Padres) – Kouzmanoff
is another third baseman that struggled out of the gate, but really raised
some eyebrows with his second half performance. Bettering the numbers of Encarnacion,
he posted an OPS of 0.890 with 11 homers while batting at a 0.318 clip. In
1300+ minor league at bats, he had an OPS of 0.951 and hit 0.332. The only
downfall is the park that he plays in, but all the talent is there.
| AB |
H |
AVG |
HR |
RBI |
R |
SB |
OBP |
| 515 |
153 |
0.296 |
23 |
81 |
66 |
1 |
0.347 |
Shortstop / Rafael Furcal (Dodgers) – While Furcal
may not be your prototypical sleeper, he has some nice bounceback value after
an injury riddled 2007 season. On top of the injury bug, Juan Pierre was as
large reason for Raffy’s decreased steal totals. Batting in front of an aggressive
hitter gives base runners fewer chances to run and less looks at the pitcher.
Joe Torre could bat Loney & Martin in the two hole this season which would
help Furcal’s value a lot. Watch how the lineup plays out this spring. Oh,
did I mention this is a walk season as well? Buy now.
| AB |
H |
AVG |
HR |
RBI |
R |
SB |
OBP |
| 610 |
174 |
0.286 |
12 |
53 |
106 |
32 |
0.353 |
Outfield / Matt Kemp (Dodgers) - Has anyone been noticing
a trend here? Ok, I admit, I am a Dodger homer, but what is there not to like
about Matt Kemp? There is a good reason why his name keeps coming up in trade
talks with the likes of Johan Santana and Erik Bedard. There is also a good
reason why Ned Coletti has held on to his young stud. Kemp possesses great
five tool ability and a lot of raw power. In 2006, pitcher’s found the hole
in his swing with breaking balls away. In 2007, Kemp was driving those pitches
over the RF fence. He made some base running blunders last season, so Torre
may not be as aggressive on the bases as Grady Little was, but he should produce
across the board.
| AB |
H |
AVG |
HR |
RBI |
R |
SB |
OBP |
| 540 |
165 |
0.305 |
25 |
88 |
78 |
15 |
0.353 |
Outfield / Jeremy Hermida (Marlins) – Now, if you listened
to me last season, I pointed owners in the direction of such OF breakthroughs
as Alex Rios & Corey Hart as well as declaring Matt Holliday the undisputed
#1 fantasy outfielder in front of the likes of Vlad, Manny, ect. Those that
were smart enough to listen enjoyed some tremendous production. This season,
enter Jeremy Hermida to the crop blooming outfielders. Just two seasons ago,
Hermida was labeled as a uber prospect with amazing potential that owners
drooled over. After a year and a half of injuries, the honeymoon is over and
the light as dimmed on Hermida. In the second half of 2007 however, he showed
everyone once again why he was rated so highly. In 256 post All-Star break
at bats, Hermida hit 0.340, with 10 homers while posting an OPS of 0.956!
He was also tied for the league lead in post ASB doubles with 23. It was somewhat
discouraging to see him only attempt 2 steals in the second half, but perhaps
with an entire offseason of training, rather than rehabbing, it will bring
this future stud back into the spotlight.
| AB |
H |
AVG |
HR |
RBI |
R |
SB |
OBP |
| 490 |
145 |
0.295 |
26 |
82 |
72 |
13 |
0.375 |
Outfield / Wily Mo Pena (Nationals) – Pena is another
player that enjoyed some solid second half numbers. While he won’t help in
the way of batting average, he is a big time power threat and with the Nationals
getting out of RFK and into a more neutral environment, he has a good shot
at hitting 30+ bombs. The OF there in Washington has become somewhat of a
logjam, but he should get 500+ at bats.
| AB |
H |
AVG |
HR |
RBI |
R |
SB |
OBP |
| 510 |
134 |
0.262 |
31 |
77 |
66 |
3 |
0.311 |
Starting Pitcher / Zach Greinke (Royals) – Greinke
has always showed good command and plus secondary offerings. After pitching
most of the season out of the pen, he discovered a fastball that could touch
the upper 90’s. The results were improved ratios across the board. The success
continued after a return to the rotation in the late summer. While the wins
may not be there, he should provide owners with solid ratios and better than
average strikeout numbers.
| ERA |
W |
IP |
K |
WHIP |
| 3.80 |
12 |
191 |
152 |
1.24 |
Starting Pitcher / Adam Wainwright (Cardinals) – Most
were high on Adam entering last season following his strong numbers in the
closers role during the Cardinal’s World Series run. He started slow, but
regained form after the All-Star break. With 12 of his final 15 starts being
that of the quality variety, Wainwright struck out nearly a batter per inning
limiting batters to a 0.217 BAA. His overall numbers however are fairly average.
Expect some improvement here.
| ERA |
W |
IP |
K |
WHIP |
| 3.65 |
15 |
210 |
152 |
1.28 |
Starting Pitcher / Dustin McGowan (Blue Jays) – McGowan
is a little hit or miss, but his potential is too great to not take a flier
as a #4 or #5 starter. He still battles his control at time, but the stuff
is there. Through his first full MLB season, he held the opposition to a 0.230
BAA over 169.2 IP and seemed to get stronger down the stretch posting a 1.143
WHIP over his final 98 innings. In a season where there are not a lot of cheap,
clear cut breakout candidates, McGowan is a great option.
| ERA |
W |
IP |
K |
WHIP |
| 3.95 |
13 |
185 |
160 |
1.26 |
Closer / Rafael Soriano (Braves) – Most know about
Soriano, but he quietly put up some great numbers last season. He enters the
2008 season as the clear favorite for saves in Atlanta. His K:BB improved
to almost 5:1 last season and he walked less than 2 batters per 9. He’ll still
K about a batter per inning with potential to do more. On a good Braves team,
he should earn 35+ saves if he remains healthy.
| ERA |
S |
IP |
K |
WHIP |
| 2.77 |
36 |
71 |
75 |
0.95 |
Closer / Bob Howry (Cubs) – Kerry Wood and Carlos Marmol
are the sexy to win the closer’s job, but it’s Howry that should enter the
season in the role. He was Lou’s choice when Ryan Dempster was ineffective
& got he the job done. He’s a bulldog that does his job and should rack
up some solid save totals.
| ERA |
S |
IP |
K |
WHIP |
| 3.21 |
33 |
74 |
66 |
1.16 |
Closer / Joakim Soria (Royals) – In limited time last
season, Soria was very good replacing an injured Octavio Dotel. Despite being
in a tough division, the Royals are a team on the rise resulting in a few
more late inning save chances. With good ratios across the board and no real
threat on his job, Soria should comfortably approach the 30 save mark this
season.
| ERA |
S |
IP |
K |
WHIP |
| 2.64 |
30 |
68 |
77 |
1.06 |
-Jeff Bobzin - RotoKingdom Staff Writer