Spring Training has officially started, and with
it the start of the fantasy baseball season. Fantasy players from
around the world will begin their preparation for their drafts
in the next six weeks. An important thing about planning for your
draft is to have your players broken down by position into tiers,
and from there you determine the appropriate players to take and
when to take them. This for a standard 12 team 5x5 rotisserie
league.
This article is about what was once one of the
thinner positions in fantasy baseball, but now is one of the deepest.
Shortstop. I’m going to break the players down by tiers, and then
give you my projections for 2008 and which rounds should be appropriate
to draft them. And the range our experts ranked them.
Tier 1 (Rounds 1-3)
All 3 of these players have a rare combination of power and speed
at a position where it gives you an advantage on your opponents
if your lucky enough to land any of them. These shortstops this
year will probably be 1’st round picks in most drafts.
1. Hanley Ramirez, Marlins – At 25 years of age, his future
is bright and he should remain a fantasy force for years to come.
The numbers he put up across the board was both unexpected, especially
his power numbers, and filled stat lines like few others. He hit
.332 with 29 home runs and 81 runs batted in. Added to that he
scored 125 runs with 51 stolen bases. Expect a decline in his
runs scored with the loss of Miguel Cabrera, but possibly an increase
in stolen bases to get himself in scoring position earlier. High
Rank 1. Low Rank 3
Projection:
| Average |
Runs |
HR |
RBI |
SB |
| .318 |
110 |
24 |
79 |
55 |
2. Jose Reyes, Mets –
Another 25 year old, Reyes suffered through a late season slump
and some of his numbers showed it. A .280 average, 12 homers,
57 runs batted in, with 78 stolen bases and 119 runs scored. He
also increased his walk total over the previous year going to
77 from 53. I expect some increase in his home run production
as well as runs batted in. The rest of his numbers should remain
constant. High Rank 1. Low Rank 3.
Projection:
|
Average |
Runs |
HR |
RBI |
SB |
|
.283 |
115 |
18 |
70 |
72 |
3. Jimmy Rollins, Phillies –
At 30 years old, the 2007 NL MVP enjoyed a career year. He joined
the 30-30 club with 30 homers and 41 stolen bases. Rollins also
hit .296, scored league-high 139 runs and drove in 94. You would
be hard pressed to count on similar production from him again
this year, but his numbers should still be elite among shortstops.
High Rank 2. Low Rank 3.
Projection:
| Average |
Runs |
HR |
RBI |
SB |
| .282 |
112 |
23 |
88 |
37 |
Tier 2 (Rounds 4-6)
4. Troy Tulowitski, Rockies – In his first
full season in the majors, the 24 year-old Tulowitski won both
the NL Rookie of the Year as well as a Gold Glove. His numbers
were outstanding hitting .291, with 24 home runs, 99 runs batted
in, 104 runs scored with 7 stolen bases. What is some cause for
concern are his away numbers. If those numbers improve, it could
vault him into elite status. High Rank 4. Low Rank 13.
| |
Average |
HR |
RBI |
OPS |
| Home |
.326 |
15 |
60 |
.960 |
| Away |
.256 |
9 |
39 |
.719 |
Projection:
| Average |
Runs |
HR |
RBI |
SB |
| .285 |
105 |
28 |
104 |
9 |
5. Derek Jeter, Yankees – Despite turning
34 years old, Jeter shows no signs of decline at the plate, though
he did show a decrease in stolen base production stealing only
15 in 2007 and his percentage has dropped. But he did hit .322,
with 12 homers and 73 runs batted in and scored 102 runs out of
the number two hole where he will hit again this year. High Rank
4. Low Rank 6.
Projection:
| Average |
Runs |
HR |
RBI |
SB |
| .318 |
105 |
14 |
70 |
14 |
6. Miguel Tejada, Astros – This year Tejada
switches leagues and will be in a hitter’s park and also won’t
have to deal with the pitching in the AL East. Last year was first
season he was hurt as well after six seasons of not missing a
game. He’s also got the steroid issue to deal with. At 32, his
numbers have declined slowly from his monstrous season of 2004.
With an average of .296, only 18 homers, 81 RBI’s, and 72 runs
scored, it’s a far cry from what we are used to seeing. Expect
a rebound from him. They won’t be the MVP type numbers of the
past, but they will certainly help your stat line. High Rank 6.
Low Rank 7.
Projection:
| Average |
Runs |
HR |
RBI |
SB |
| .304 |
92 |
26 |
97 |
2 |
7. Michael Young, Rangers – A model of consistency,
at age 31, Young has amassed 200+ hits for 5 straight seasons.
His HR production has declined steadily since 2005, however. That
number should go up a bit, but what he brings to the table is
a solid batting average and for those leagues where hits is a
category, he’ll help you since he doesn’t walk a whole lot with
only 47 last year. Considering he was only hitting .215 at the
end of April, and .257 at the end of May, his average of .315,
with 9 home runs, 94 runs batted in, 80 runs scored, could have
been much higher. Young also stole 13 bases. If you can get him
in rounds 6 or 7, you are getting good value. High Rank 7. Low
Rank 11.
Projection:
| Average |
Runs |
HR |
RBI |
SB |
| .320 |
85 |
13 |
88 |
12 |
8. Carlos Guillen, Tigers –
Guillen will be the Tigers first baseman this year. Why then,
do I have him ranked so high as a shortstop? The answer is clear.
You will get solid first baseman numbers from him at a position
where power production is scarce. At age 32, he hit .296, hit
21 homers, and drove in 102 runs, scored 86, to go along with
13 stolen bases. Not having to play what is one of the toughest
positions to play in baseball should help his numbers across the
board. As will the line-up surrounding him. And for those of you
worried about future eligibility, he may get the required 5 games
started in yahoo leagues. High Rank 5. Low Rank 8.
Projection:
| Average |
Runs |
HR |
RBI |
SB |
| .300 |
92 |
25 |
110 |
12 |
Tier 3 (Rounds 7-11)
9. Orlando Cabrera, White Sox
– Despite the move to the White Sox, the 34 year-old Gold Glove
winner, should still post decent numbers. Last years stats were
8 homers, 86 RBI’s, a .301 batting average, with 101 runs scored
and 20 stolen bases. I don’t expect him to hit as well as he did
with a much more potent Angels line-up around him. But he’s solid
and should get you some stolen production and score some runs.
High Rank 9. Low Rank 16.
Projection:
| Average |
Runs |
HR |
RBI |
SB |
| .277 |
90 |
9 |
75 |
22 |
10. Khalil Greene, Padres – I might be
reaching a bit here, but at 28 years old, I feel Greene is starting
to show why he was so highly touted. The power is there as judged
by his 27 homers last year. He also drove in 97 runs and scored
89 with 4 stolen bases. The flip side was his paltry .254 batting
average. I believe the power is real. If he showed more plate
discipline as his 128 strikeouts suggests he doesn’t, he would
be ranked higher. In our mock draft, I took him with my last pick
in round 21 as a back up to Hanley. Insanity. High Rank 10. Low
Rank 17.
Projection:
| Average |
Runs |
HR |
RBI |
SB |
| .273 |
93 |
25 |
102 |
5 |
11. Jhonny Peralta, Indians – Another player
who lacks plate discipline, which has hampered his performance.
But at only 25 years old, he is entering his prime years. After
a horrific 2006 season, he rebounded to hit .270 with 21 homers,
72 runs batted in, scoring 87 runs and stealing 4 bases. A notorious
fastball hitter, if he could lay off the “pitcher’s pitch”, there’s
no limit on what his production could be. High Rank 10. Low Rank
14.
Projection:
| Average |
Runs |
HR |
RBI |
SB |
| .267 |
85 |
23 |
81 |
2 |
12. Rafael Furcal, Dodgers – Furcal started
off very slowly last year. Part of which was due to an ankle injury
he suffered during spring training and seemed to hamper him all
year. He certainly didn’t give his owners last year what they
thought he would bring. He hit .270, had only 6 home runs, drove
in 47, but did score 87 runs and steal 25 bases. Furcal is healthy
heading into this year and he should revert back to his 2006 numbers
at least. At 30 years old, he should increase his numbers across
the board. He will give you stolen bases, runs scored and a decent
batting average. Look elsewhere for power. High Rank 5. Low Rank
12.
Projection:
| Average |
Runs |
HR |
RBI |
SB |
| .280 |
95 |
12 |
62 |
34 |
Tier 4 (Rounds 11-15)
13. Edgar Renteria, Tigers – Edgar hit
.332 last year, which was a career high. In 124 games, the 31
year old also hit 12 homers, knocked in 57 runs to go along with
87 runs scored and 11 stolen bases. I feel however, the numbers
that give him value will decrease because of where he will hit
in a loaded Tiger line-up. It’s likely that he will hit eighth
or possibly ninth. Not second, like he did last year with the
Braves. High Rank 10. Low Rank 15.
Projection:
| Average |
Runs |
HR |
RBI |
SB |
| .288 |
85 |
12 |
65 |
12 |
14. J. J. Hardy, Brewers – Last April and
May alone, Hardy accounted for more than half of his 26 home runs
and 80 runs batted in. It’s highly unlikely he ever goes through
a stretch like that again. He also hit .277, scored 89 runs and
stole 2 bases. But the 25 year old has the ability to produce
in a good Milwaukee line-up. High Rank 9. Low Rank 18.
Projection:
| Average |
Runs |
HR |
RBI |
SB |
| .272 |
88 |
18 |
76 |
4 |
15. Stephen Drew, Diamondbacks – It’s fair
to say the 25 year-old Drew struggled at the plate in his first
full year as the starter. With 12 homers, 60 runs batted in, 60
runs scored and 9 stolen bases, his batting average was an anemic
.238 along with an OBP of just .313. With a year’s seasoning under
his belt, we should see an increase in his production. Somewhere
between last year and his stint in 2006 where he hit .316 in 209
at-bats. High Rank 13. Low Rank 21.
Projection:
| Average |
Runs |
HR |
RBI |
SB |
| .268 |
77 |
16 |
75 |
12 |
Tier 5 (Round 16+)
16. Julio Lugo, Red Sox – Despite hitting
only .238 in a season prolonged slump, the 32 year-old Lugo still
managed to provide his owners with 73 RBI’s and 33 stolen bases
in a loaded Boston line-up. He also had 8 homers and scored 71
runs. If he can hit well enough to warrant hitting out of the
two spot, expect a rise from his run production. It’s interesting
to note that he hit .305 batting ninth last year. If your looking
for stolen bases and run production late in the draft, he could
be a great value pick. High Rank 10. Low Rank 17.
Projection:
| Average |
Runs |
HR |
RBI |
SB |
| .260 |
80 |
10 |
65 |
27 |
17. Felipe Lopez, Nationals – At 28 years
old, the switch-hitting Lopez has never lived up to his potential.
Last year his batting average slipped to .245 to go along with
9 home runs, 50 runs batted in, 70 runs scored with a career-high
24 stolen bases. Headed for arbitration, his main value is stolen
bases. The 23 home runs from 2005, I believe is a thing of the
past. High Rank 9. Low Rank 19.
Projection:
| Average |
Runs |
HR |
RBI |
SB |
| .258 |
77 |
10 |
55 |
23 |
18. Bobby Crosby, A’s – Originally I had
Crosby ranked a bit higher, but the 28 year old oft-injured SS
has not significantly improved his numbers and still strikes out
a lot. Last year’s numbers in only 93 games were a batting average
of .226, 8 homers, 31 RBI’s, along with 40 runs scored and 10
stolen bases. It would be nice to see what he could do healthy
for a full season. The potential is there, but not worth a higher
pick. High Rank 15. Low Rank 28.
Projection
| Average |
Runs |
HR |
RBI |
SB |
| .248 |
70 |
15 |
68 |
15 |
Top Sleepers
Khalil Greene, Padres
Julio Lugo, Red Sox
Yunel Escobar, Braves
Asdrubal Cabrera, Indians
- Mike Venancio - RotoKingdom Staff Writer
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