I’m going to discuss the position that usually
includes one of the better players on most fantasy teams. First
Base. There’s no getting away from it. Without at least
one or two pure sluggers on your team, chances are your team will
not be near the top of the power categories. And first base is
a good position to acquire them.
No fewer than 10 first sackers hit 30 homers in
2007. And 20 of them reached the 20-homer plateau. Also, 11 knocked
in 100 runs or more. This does not include players solely eligible
at DH. In our annual RotoKingdom Mock Draft (12-team), eleven
players were taken in the 1st three rounds that were eligible
at first base. The rankings below were comprised from our experts
average of 7 individual player rankings.
1. Albert Pujols, Cardinals
– Ranked number 1 across the board. It’s hard to imagine
that a season consisting of 32 homers, 103 RBI’s and a .332
batting average is an “off-year”, but comparing it
to his previous seasons, it was. It shows the expectations that
fantasy players have for him. Don’t be fooled like many
did last year with A-Rod. He’s still a top 3 pick in any
league. The only concern I have is his elbow. He opted not to
have off-season surgery so hopefully it won’t flare up on
him this year and cause him to miss significant time. Pujols was
drafted 2nd overall by our resident baseball moderator BlackLabel.
2. Ryan Howard, Phillies –
Ranked high as 2nd, low as 4th, Howard’s average slipped
to .268 and he struck-out 199 times in 2007. In only 144 games,
he did hit 47 home runs and drove in 136 runs. Bothered by a quad
injury that caused him to miss a few weeks in the first half,
his damage was done mostly during the second half of the season.
Expect his batting average to rise slightly, and with it a legitimate
shot at 50+ home runs. Ryan was drafted 7th overall by expert
Dave Meyer, and that is the area where he should be drafted.
3. David Ortiz, Red Sox –
“Big Papi” was ranked high as 2nd and low as 5th.
Chronic knee issues plagued him throughout 2007, and may have
contributed to a lower home run total than was expected at 35.
But his average rose to .332. Ortiz certainly isn’t “fragile”,
but his knee issue does consider watching. Healthy, those numbers
will probably be disproportional with a rise in his home run total
and a lowering of his average. 40+ home runs with an average around
.310 are projections. Ortiz was selected 17th overall by Bruce Quinto.
Good value here.
4. Prince Fielder, Brewers –
Ranked between 3rd and 5th, Fielder lived up to his high expectations
last year. At only 23 years old, it’s easy to see why he
should put up numbers similar to last year. The youngest player
in MLB history to hit 50 home runs, Prince should approach that
number again this year. A small improvement in plate discipline
could improve his average to the .300 plateau. Selected 13th overall
by our expert Stephen Pavlik, this was a great pick-up as Fielder
has been a 1st round pick in many mock drafts I have seen.
5. Mark Teixiera, Braves –
The disparity in the rankings starts to show here as Teixiera
is ranked high as 2nd by expert Derrick Boyd, and low as 7th by
other resident expert Jeff Bobzin. Acquired by Atlanta at the
trade deadline in 2007, Mark was better for the Braves than he
was for Texas. In only 54 games for the Braves he slugged 17 homers,
drove in 56 runs while batting .317. In a line-up tailor made
for him, he should easily surpass his 2007 season totals of 30/105/.306.
On cue, Boyd selected him with the 3rd pick of the 2nd round.
6. Lance Berkman, Astros –
His rank from a low of 9th to a high of 5th, may be attributed
to his slow start in 2007. He rebounded nicely however to post
numbers of 34/102/.278. Expect a better start in 2008 and with
it a slight increase in his batting average. This could bring
him close to the numbers of Pujols, but at a much cheaper price.
His OF eligibility is a bonus. A great pick by BlackLabel as the
2nd pick in round three gives him the dual threats of Pujols and
Berkman.
7. Travis Hafner, Indians –
“Pronk” to say the least, had a down year in 2007,
which didn’t show in our ranks as he was placed from 5th
to 9th. Apparently in the belief that 2007 was an abomination.
24 homers with 100 RBI’s are solid numbers but his .266
average after three previous seasons of over .300 gives some cause
for concern. This may drop him down in some drafts, but don’t
hesitate to take him in the 3rd round as our expert Dustin Ward
did, with the 11th selection in the 3rd round.
8. Justin Morneau, Twins –
The Twins slugger suffered through a dreadful power slump last
year in which he hit just 3 homers in the months of August and
September combined. Explaining our rank discrepancy from 6th to
12th. Nevertheless 31 home runs, 11 runs batted in, albeit a .271
average is still a good season overall. At 26, he’s entering
his prime years and he should increase his batting average and
home run production. Taken in the 3rd round with the 5th pick
by expert Seth Beuhnerkemper, Morneau should justify this selection.
9. Derrek Lee, Cubs – Consistency
among our rankers at 8th and 10th. Lee rebounded rather nicely
from his 2006 injury-plagues year, but we also saw a major power
outage as he hit only 22 homers from the 46 he hit two years ago.
82 RBI’s while not bad, was still below expectations from
those who owned him last year as well as his stolen base total
of 6. He did hit .317. It’s not hard to expect an increase
in the power numbers, but don’t expect anything near 2006.
The 43rd player selected in our draft by expert Kegan Mercadante,
if Derrek provides a bit more power production, this is a good
value pick.
10. Carlos Pena, Devil Rays –
Pena stunned fantasy players last year by breaking out and mashing
an AL-leading 46 home runs. Tack on 121 RBI’s and a respectable
.282 batting average and this was the making of an outstanding
season. Whether he will be a “one-year wonder” however
is difficult to say. RotoKingdom founder and expert Jason Aufderhaar
has him ranked highest at 6th while Derrick Boyd has him 13th.
Drafted in the 4th round with the 10th pick by yours truly, I
felt even a 25% reduction in his power numbers would produce a
35 homer, 92 RBI season.
The Best of the Rest
11. Adrian Gonzalez, Padres –
A huge disparity in the rankings. From 6th to 19th. Only 25, his
power is still developing. Taken in round 5 by Bruce Quinto with
his 8th pick, numbers of 30/100/.282 as last year’s were
certainly warrants this selection.
12. Garett Atkins, Rockies –
It appears his ranking of 10th to 17th is an indication that his
position eligibility at third base also is a factor. He will more
than likely be used at third base but his numbers of .301/25/111
justify Steve Pavlik’s selection of him with the last pick
in round 5.
13. Paul Konerko, White Sox –
Ranked by our experts between 10th and 17th, Konerko is a fantasy
enigma. You really never know what you are going to get. The 31
homers and 90 RBI’s were nice, but a .259 batting average
was not. Will he rebound is a key question. I expect he will.
Taken by Steve Pavlik with the last pick in round 7.
14. Victor Martinez, Indians
– I ranked him highest at 9th. The low was 22nd. My feeling
was that his numbers of .301/25/114 could make an argument for
ranking him that high alone, but with catcher eligibility his
value increases. Using him solely as a first baseman, while not
wise, could be done if your starter at the position gets injured.
I chose him with the 3rd pick of the 3rd round.
15. Jim Thome, White Sox –
The first true DH to come off the board. Unless he somehow sees
time at first base, you can only use him at your utility slot.
Still with that in mind, he ranked 13th to 19th. His selection
with the 4th pick in the 12th round by WestrayKnight was a steal.
Getting 35/95/.275 that late in the draft shows the depth of this
position..
Veteran players left out include Carlos Guillen,
Todd Helton, Carlos Delgado, Frank Thomas (another DH only), Nick
Swisher, Richie Sexson and Jason Giambi. There are more. Some
of these players should be available in the middle rounds with
the exception of Guillen who will be selected as a shortstop.
Some have injury issues, some are frankly on the downward side
of their careers, and others have shown promise, but are not quite
there yet. But a veteran like Helton can certainly help you in
certain categories as will players like Delgado, Thomas, Giambi,
and Swisher.
Then you have the up and coming players with plenty
of potential, but not enough experience to warrant top consideration.
In keeper leagues however, you may take a risk early in the middle
rounds to grab one of these youngsters in the hope they break
out. These include Alex Gordon, James Loney, Joey Votto, Billy
Butler, Ryan Garko, Daric Barton, Conor Jackson and Adam LaRoche.
All have talent and are being groomed by their respective teams.
As you can see by the production that the top
15 players bring to the stat line, where they were drafted, and
the quality of players left off that list, that this is a very
deep position. The numbers do start to drop off, however, drop
off after the first 15. So acquiring two of these sluggers in
a 12-team league is almost a must. Or at least one top-5 and a
lesser tier. If you have any questions or just wish to discuss
this article or others, please visit our baseball forums here
at rotokingdom.
- Mike Venancio – RotoKingdom Staff
Writer