A baseball fan since 1976, Bruce has been playing fantasy baseball since 1992. A winner in numerous competitive leagues, and an annual participant in thr RK Die Hard leagues, Bruce is also a Moderator for the baseball forums where his years of experience will benefit our readers.

Fantasy Baseball - Player Evaluation Tips

by Bruce Quinto - Rotokingdom Staff Writer

• Dont forget that you are looking for future potential which is different then past performance. Many apparently acceptable past statistics should be discounted.
  
• Preformance spikes are almost always followed by downturns.
  
• Sometimes downturns are followed by rebounds. Sometimes.
  
• Dont trust players with big righty/lefty or home/away splits. Bad things are more likley to happen to them.
  

Hitters - Average

• Be careful evaluating hitters with fewer then 100 AB. Adding just 5 hits to a .250 hitter (in 100 AB) makes him a .300 hitter.
  
• Similar strikeout and walk totals are a good sign. More walks then strikeouts is a better sign. Hitter with a poor batting eye, even if they have a good average. are bad risks.
  
• Batters with BB/K ratios of under .50 will always be prone to streaks and slumps. These tend to be aggressive hitters who are usually figured out by pitchers.
  
• Batters with BB/K ratios over 1.00 are always good to own, and are great targets to be cherry picked near the end of the draft
  

Hitters - HR's, RBI's, Runs

• More Home runs then Doubles is bad. This usually indicates an open swing and is often accompanied by poor BB/K ratios. This is especially bad for minor leaguers, whose deficiency will almost certainlly be exploited upon promotion.
  
• Hidden power sorces can come from players with slugging averages of .450 and above. Better yet, subtract AVG from SLG. This metric is called Isolated Power. The best Power potential comes from players who have an Isolated Power of .200 or more.
  
• If a power hitter had and off year and his batting ratio (BB/K) was lower then historic levels, he probably wont bounce back the next season. But if his BB/K ratio was significantly higher then historic levels a rebound is very likley.
  
• If a power hitter has career year and his BB/K ratio was lower than his historic levels, he probably wont follow up strongly the following year. If his BB/K ratio was stronger then his historic levels have been, a strong follow up is likley.
  
• RBI's are the result of getting hits with men on base, and as such are usually more closely associated with team context and batting order position then any intrinsic skill. This is especially important to remember after a player changes teams.
  
• Runs are the result of getting on base and having the hitter(s) behind you drive you in. Like RBI's, team context and batting order position contribute greatly to success.
  

Hitters - Stolen Bases

• Target speedsters who have an OBP higher than .350
  
• Avoid young speedsters with poor batting eye ratios and/or a poor batting average.
  
• There will always be exceptions, but stay away from old speedsters.
  

Pitchers - Wins

• The most important element enabling a pitcher to get wins is the teams offense.
  
• Look for starters on good offensive teams with a good defense and a strong bullpen.
  
• STAY AWAY from young pitchers on poor teams.
  
• If you have to take a chance on a rookie pitcher, favor ones joining strong pitching staffs, preferably on a contender. A successful atmosphere seems to encourage quicker development.
  

Pitchers - Saves

• Opportunity may give a pitcher a chance to close but talent and guile are what it will take for him to hold the job.
  
• Opportunity is beyond our predicitive capabilities, but talent and guile are not. Therefore, collect pitchers with the best skills. The worst case scenario is you wind up with a bunch of arms who are not likely to hurt you, the best case one gets the chance to close.
  
• Know your closers in Waiting. These are generally right-handers who are pitching well and have a few years of big league experience.
  
• The best closers in waiting are those behind injury prone or less talented closers. Or behind good closers that are likely to be traded.
  
• Most minor league closers do not get an opportunity to step into save situations when they are first called up.
  
• Although it doesn't make intuitive sense, frontline closers even on bad teams can still save 40 games.
  

Pitchers - Strikeouts

• Look for strikout totals that come close to the pitcher's innings pitched totals.
  
• Always look for pitchers with more strikeouts than walks. A pitcher who strikes out two batters for every one he walks has strong future potential.
  
• Pitchers - Wins
• Forget ERA, it is maybe the most unpredictable stat in the game.
  
• Be careful evealuating pitchers with fewer then 30 IP. Just adding 3 runs to a pitcher with an era of 2.88 in 25 IP will inflate his era to nearly 4.00.
  
• Look for pitchers with fewer hits allowed then innings.
  
• Be very afraid of pitchers who issue alot of walks. Fewer then 3 per nine innings is fine.
  

Minor Leaguers

• Less then half of all newly promoted minor leaguers perform acceptably upon call up.
  
• As a rule, stay away from pitchers with less then a full year at AAA under their belt.
  
• Stay away from young pitchers who throw more then 200 innings the year before, dont forget to count all levels, including winter ball.
  
• A rookie pitcher's second half numbers in his debut season is a more accurate barometer of his short term future than his full season preformance.
  
• Lefty minor league pitchers are always at a premium and will get a shot sooner then their righty counter parts, though that isn't always a good thing.
  

- Bruce Quinto - RotoKingdom Staff Writer