The week after the Super Bowl, we'll be unveiling the first version of RotoKingdom's 2010 NFL Mock Draft. It's something we've put together every year RK has been around, and we've learned a few things along the way. If you've ever been interested in doing your own mock, I have a few suggestions...
1) Rank the available players, regardless of position
This is a no-brainer, but the devil is in the details. What are their injury risks? What is their history of getting into trouble? Did they play in non-pro offenses? Are there height concerns, weight concerns, age concerns, speed concerns, measurement concerns? Did they excel because of a lower level of competition? Did they excel because they were surrounded by great players?
Scouts and GMs have loads of concerns just like these, and they use them in making their rankings. But remember: some teams aren't scared off by average speed; others aren't scared off by attitude problems. Just because 31 teams don't like a player's arrest record, that doesn't mean that 32nd team won't draft that player in the first round.
2) Consider a team's immediate needs
Again, this is a no-brainer - but only in the first two rounds. Try to come up with 3 positions where the team is deficient, then look at your 'best available' list. Corner may be the team's biggest need, but if there isn't a corner worth taking at that spot, don't force one in. That team may decide to address their second-most needed position if there's a great player there. But immediate needs are MUCH less of a concern for teams than fans think. That's because they...
3) Consider which free agents might leave NEXT year
Many teams DO draft for next year. GMs look at which starters will become free agents and draft with the intent of replacing that player one year from now.
The Patriots and Steelers do this quite well. The Pats weren't in dire need of a top-flight nose tackle or left tackle THIS year... but with Vince Wilfork and Matt Light on their ways out, Ron Brace and Sebastian Vollmer made great sense. Now, those two players have a year of NFL experience under their belts and are poised to step into the starting lineup if necessary.
4) Consider how each team drafts
Understand the quirks of each team. For example, I doubt any other team had Darrius Heyward-Bey ranked higher than Michael Crabtree OTHER THAN the Raiders. If I had said that Heyward-Bey was a #7 overall pick, you would have said, "No effin' way!" Then, if I had said that the Raiders held the #7 overall pick, you would have said, "Oh. Yeah, Al Davis is dumb enough to do that."
The Steelers take the best player available. The Redskins trade down. The Patriots draft multiple players at the same position. The Jets takes players that drive their fans nuts. Try to figure out the patterns.
5) Consider which teams may trade up for which players
This isn't something you should think about too much since trades are incredibly tough to predict. But I've correctly predicted a few in my day, and those feel amazingly satisfying!
Basically, you should rule out any in-division trades (they're rare) and you should rule out any trades between teams/owners that hate each other. Find the teams that have the ammo to move up in a trade; find the teams that need to add extra picks... they will probably make a great pair.
Also, teams tend to trade up in the event of a run on a particular position. For example, during The Great Tackle Rush of '08, the Chiefs and Falcons both traded up to get left tackle prospects. They watched as Jake Long, Ryan Clady and Chris Williams came off the board, and they panicked. If a team wants to shore up a particular position - and quality players at that position start drying up - you better believe they'll be willing to give up a great deal to move up.
- Uncle Scurvy - RotoKingdom Staff Writer