The Cincinnati Reds seemed to come out of nowhere with the surprise signing of Aroldis Chapman. The Cuban defector is set to make $25 million over five years according to John Fay of the Cincinnati Enquirer. I’m coining Chapman as the “Cuban Missile Crisis.” Why? Well, for two reasons… The first is that Chapman boasts a triple digit fastball clocked as high as 102 mph, which will look like rockets coming out of his arm towards the opposing batters. The second reason is that he’s also had control meltdowns that could become a crisis for the Reds as they wait for him to mature as a starting pitcher. To catch a glimpse of his inconsistency I’d recommend reading his profile on baseball-reference.com. For now keep your first year expectations of the “Cuban Missile Crisis” modest as Chapman will have moments of greatness and seem unhittable, but also lack consistency and implode at times. The best comparison might be the Giants’ Jonathan Sanchez’s inconsistency last year or another Red starter Johnny Cueto of two years ago.
When you consider that most of the pitchers yet to be signed on this year’s market are workhorse fillers like Joel Pineiro, Doug Davis, and Jon Garland or veteran risk reward pitchers like Ben Sheets, Pedro Martinez, and John Smoltz, you have to love this signing, if you’re a Reds fan. Chapman is an excellent risk and has all of the potential in the world to become a number one starter or elite closer. No matter how Chapman is performing do not expect to see him until around the All-Star break because of his age, history of control problems, and contract.
Chapman Projection: 84 IP, 6 Wins, 4.57 ERA, 85 Ks, 1.36 WHIP
Brett Myers is the other notable starting pitcher that recently signed with a team. Headed to Houston, Myers is likely to win the number three spot in the rotation behind Roy Oswalt and Wandy Rodriguez. However, with Myers’ struggles in recent years he might still have to hold off youngsters Bud Norris and Felipe Paulino during spring training. Myers is 29 and had some stellar years in his recent past, but has failed to exert solid numbers the past 3 years in what should have been the beginning of his prime. Some of this irregularity may have been the due to the undefined role he had with the Phillies switching back and forth from the rotation to bullpen. From a fantasy perspective Myers should be good for strikeouts, but he’ll be relatively average in the other standard rotisserie categories.
Myers Projection: 200 IP, 11 Wins, 4.53 ERA, 188 Ks, 1.31 WHIP
Danys Baez may not be the most exciting relief pitcher, but he was one of the better middle relievers on the market this year. Philadelphia brought him in to help shore up a bullpen that blew plenty of saves last year. Don’t expect Baez (who’s beyond his prime) to be the savior at the backend of the bullpen, but he should prove to be an upgrade over the departed Chan Ho Park. Brad Lidge and Ryan Madson will still be first in line for save opportunities. The duo could struggle again this year and Lidge is likely out for the start of the season due to recent knee surgery. Those events could help Baez sneak in and grab a couple saves, but his real value will be in fantasy leagues that have holds. After recording 15 holds last year on a poor Orioles team, Baez should approach 20 holds on a contending Phillies team. Switching leagues could also help Baez improve on last season’s numbers, but he’ll likely have close to the same production.
Baez Projection: 70 IP, 3 Wins, 2 Saves, 3.98 ERA, 40 Ks, 1.25 WHIP, 20 holds
Look for Matt Capps to bounce back after a career worst 5.80 ERA and horrendous WHIP of 1.66 to boot. The former Pittsburgh closer signed a one year deal with Washington and should be the favorite for saves in the nation’s capital. According to an ESPN article on the day of his signing, Capps chose the Nationals over the Chicago Cubs and New York Mets because it gave him the best opportunity to close and re-establish himself in the league. A motivated Capps should be able to hold off Brian Bruney and dark horse Tyler Clippard for closing duties this spring.
Capps Projection: 75 IP, 4 Wins, 27 Saves, 3.24 ERA, 64 Ks, 1.12 WHIP
Perhaps the best reliever, if not best pitcher, on the entire free agent market for this season was Jose Valverde. The former Houston Astros closer inked a two year $14 million contract with the Detroit Tigers yesterday according to Yahoo! Sports. Valverde should prove to be an upgrade over the departed Fernando Rodney in the ninth inning role. Last season Valverde only managed to save 25 games, but that was partly due to a calf injury and partly due to the lackluster efforts of the Astros who only managed 74 team victories a season ago. This year the Tiger closer should be back up to his typical production as a second tier closer and eclipse the 40 save mark on a contending team in Detroit.
Valverde Projection: 74 IP, 4 Wins, 45 Saves, 2.81 ERA, 84 Ks, 1.14 WHIP
- Jason Aufderhaar - RotoKingdom Staff Writer
The founder of RotoKingdom.net has over 15 years of fantasy sports experience. Jason is a two time winner of RotoKingdom's 20 Team Die Hard I baseball league, winning in 2002 and 2005. In 2006, Jason won RotoKingdom's 20 Team Die Hard I basketball league. That year he was also the individual champion of a 20 team website challenge baseball league versus competitors in the industry. Jason has written NBA, NFL, and NHL articles for OPEN Sports (FOX) and Fanball.