Although the winter is very cold, baseball’s free agent signing period is starting to heat up. In this edition of RotoKing’s Ramblings we will take a closer look at some of this year’s more recent outfielder and designated hitter acquisitions and how they might impact their new teams.
Marlon Byrd was perhaps the first significant signing of the 2010 season. The Chicago Cubs hope that he can be a productive replacement for the oft-injured Milton Bradley. Byrd had a career year last year and has been a mediocre player at best away from Arlington Stadium. Take a look at his season splits for batting average and on base plus slugging percentage in the list below.
2007
Home - .356 Bavg, .916 OPS in 202 ABs
Away - .259 Bavg, .715 OPS in 212 ABs
2008
Home - .299 Bavg, .911 OPS in 201 ABs
Away - .297 Bavg, .773 OPS in 202 ABs
2009
Home - .282 Bavg, .873 OPS in 202 ABs
Away - .285 Bavg, .740 OPS in 212 ABs
Byrd clearly hit for a lot more power at home the last three seasons. The facts of the matter are that he’s 32 years old and last year was the only season in which he hit more than 10 home runs and had more than 70 RBIs. A one year deal might have made sense, but the Cubs gave him a three year deal worth $15 million. Byrd might be an adequate hitter this year, but he’s an average player about to enter the downside of his career. The Cubs could have done better saving the money and simply giving the at bats to Sam Fuld and Micah Hoffpair.
Byrd Projection: 560 ABs, .297 Bavg, 80 Runs, 16 HRs, 87 RBIs, 8 SBs, .816 OPS
Jason Bay made headlines inking a four year $66 million dollar contract with the New York Mets. The price tag seems a little high, but in an off-season with few big name free agents he was one of the best bats available. Bay still has middle of the order power and posted career high numbers in HRs (36) and RBIs (119) a season ago. However, those numbers seem likely to drop leaving Fenway Park for the more spacious Citi Field. Bay a .280 career hitter, has also watched his batting average dip in recent years hitting .247 in 2007 and .267 last year. Defensively, Bay was flawless last year and recorded his first errorless season, but since he’ll have to cover more ground at Citi Field that’s not a trend that will likely continue in 2010. Bay wasn’t a bad consolation price, but if New York wanted to try to buy a contending team they should have gone after Matt Holliday.
Bay Projection: 565 ABs, .266 Bavg, 99 Runs, 30 HRs, 103 RBIs, 9 SBs, .853 OPS
Matt Holliday was the premier player of this year’s free agent class. Holliday looked quite human at times with Oakland prior to last year’s All-Star break and trade deadline. He compiled a .286 average and a .831 OPS, which are not bad numbers, but they were the worst of the perennial All-Stars career. When the St. Louis Cardinals came calling and Holliday was back in the National league he seemed rejuvenated finishing out the year hitting .353 with a 1.023 OPS. The Cards were smart hanging onto Holliday, but paid a steep price at $120 million for 7 years. Don’t expect any let downs here. The Cardinals will be a heavy favorite to win the NL Central and potentially represent the National League for the 2010 World Series. Holliday should be a borderline top 10 fantasy player this season.
Holliday Projection: 611 ABs, .327 Bavg, 113 Runs, 30 HRs, 117 RBIs, 18 SBs, .958 OPS
Another big name hitter that inked a new deal recently is designated hitter Vladimir Guerrero. When you consider the Texas Rangers signed “Vladdy Daddy” to a one year deal for $5 million with a mutual option for 2012 you really have to be asking what were the Cubs thinking with the Byrd signing. True Byrd is a better defender with a .986 fielding percentage to Guerrero’s .964 percentage, but the Cubs could have made late inning substitutions bringing in a defensive specialist off of the bench. Guerrero is the type of player that fans want to see and can help fill the seats. Although he had a down year and injury plagued season in 2009, “Vladdy Daddy” ripped the cover off the ball in the playoffs. Guerrero’s .378 batting average, was the highest of last year’s playoffs among players that received at least 18 at bats. He’ll be 35 at the start of the season and his power is on the decline, but it’s rare to find a player with a .954 OPS for their career.
Guerrero Projection: 571 ABs, .307 Bavg, 87 Runs, 25 HRs, 99 RBIs, 3 SBs, .884 OPS
It’s easy to question whether or not the Angels made the right call bringing in Hideki Matsui. Matsui aka “Godzilla” inked a deal to the tune of $6.5 million for one year, to be the Angels primary DH over retaining Vladimir Guerrero. Matsui is a year older than Guerrero and did not play a single game in the outfield a season ago. He is a slightly better defender (.982 career fielding percentage) than Guerrero, but if he’s only being brought in to hit the ball I don’t see the upgrade that the Angels do. Matsui might have more home run power than Guerrero, but he missed large parts of the 2006 and 2008 season with injuries and when you consider Godzilla has two surgically repaired knees, Guerrero is a much safer choice.
Matsui Projection: 513 ABs, .281 Bavg, 76 Runs, 23 HRs, 88 RBIs, - SB, .844 OPS
- Jason Aufderhaar - RotoKingdom Staff Writer
The founder of RotoKingdom.net has over 15 years of fantasy sports experience. Jason is a two time winner of RotoKingdom's 20 Team Die Hard I baseball league, winning in 2002 and 2005. In 2006, Jason won RotoKingdom's 20 Team Die Hard I basketball league. That year he was also the individual champion of a 20 team website challenge baseball league versus competitors in the industry. Jason has written NBA, NFL, and NHL articles for OPEN Sports (FOX) and Fanball.