Here’s the bubble watch heading into championship week…
Last Four In: Connecticut, Illinois, San Diego State, Washington
Connecticut lost a crucial matchup to Notre Dame last night. The Huskies are ranked 49th in the RPI with the #2 SoS and 3-8 versus the top 50 teams in the RPI. For now Connecticut receives a pass because of their struggles when coach Jim Calhoun was out. Notre Dame might be ahead of UConn in the Big East standings, but that’s likely due to unbalanced scheduling. Oh and for everyone that thinks it’s a mistake to leave Notre Dame out of the bracket… Just ask Loyola Marymount how tough the Irish are in South Bend. Notre Dame needs to win a couple more games regardless of where they are in the Big East standings.
Illinois… what can you say, the Big Ten is a top heavy conference. The Fighting Illini have not showed much fight as of late and are barely worthy of a bracket spot behind the Big Four. If the Illini lose to Wisconsin this weekend they are out. They might have a decent record in Big Ten play, but the Illini’s RPI is 71. That’s extremely high for a team to be considered worth of an at-large bid.
San Diego State was one of the last teams out a year ago and this year looks awfully familiar. The Aztecs need to improve their RPI and/or get a big win over BYU or New Mexico, because the Mountain West is already looking like a three bid conference and San Diego State has the fourth best resume. UNLV has a stronger record versus the top 50 RPI including wins over New Mexico, BYU, San Diego State, and Louisville. San Diego State only has two wins against the top 50 RPI versus New Mexico and UNLV.
Washington is a team that many would not consider in at this point, but facts of the matter are that the Huskies have an RPI stronger than the likes of Illinois and Notre Dame. Even though the PAC-10 is viewed as an inferior conference to the Big East Washington’s SoS is also stronger than the Fighting Irish. Washington is currently in third place of the PAC-10 and on the verge of winning their 10th conference game and 20th overall game this season. Washington is 2-2 versus the top 50 RPI teams holding wins over Texas A & M and California.
First Five Out: Dayton, UAB, Florida, Mississippi, Mississippi State
Dayton is the first bubble team outside the bracket. The Flyers played a quality non-conference schedule that included the likes of Villanova, New Mexico, Kansas State, Georgia Tech, and Old Dominion. Dayton’s biggest margin of defeat was only by 8 points to Kansas State. However, they have lost nine games overall and the loss to St. Joe’s still looms large. With two key matchups against Richmond and Saint Louis, Dayton could climb back to the top half of the Atlantic 10 standings, but after the committee has hosed the mid-majors in recent years they will need to get that RPI from 41 into the top 30 to find a spot in the field of 65.
UAB is just a spot below Dayton in the RPI at 42. They keep winning the games and have won 23 on the season, but there are only a handful of quality teams in CUSA. UTEP, the regular season conference champion is next on UAB’s schedule, but even a win might not be enough without a strong showing in the CUSA tournament.
It only seems fair to discuss all of the SEC bubble teams together since they are so close. Florida, Mississippi, and Mississippi State may be fighting for one spot in the tournament, but only if one of them chooses to step up. Florida has the strongest RPI and SoS at 52 and 35, followed by Mississippi (56, 59) and Mississippi State (59, 111). Mississippi State appeared to be the strongest team and headed towards the SEC West title, but suffered a tough defeat to Auburn last night. Mississippi State can still win the SEC West outright, but will have to defeat Tennessee on Saturday. Mississippi has two very winnable games on the table, but may have to do some work in the SEC tournament. Florida will also likely have to build on their body of work in the SEC tournament as they travel to third ranked Kentucky on Sunday. Kentucky is undefeated at home this season and has won by an average margin of 15 points versus SEC opponents.
Here’s the rest of the bubble. Many of these teams are fringe bubble teams at best and may have to win their conference auto-bid regardless, but these teams have the strongest resumes of teams not expected to make the field, heading into championship week.
Remaining Bubble Teams& Key Matchups
6. Memphis - Tulsa 3/6
7. Notre Dame - @ Marquette 3/6
8. Wichita State - MVC Tourney 3/5
9. Seton Hall - Big East Tourney 3/9
10. VCU - Colonial Tourney 3/5
11. South Florida - Connecticut 3/6
12. Cincinnati - @ Georgetown 3/6
13. Charlotte - Richmond 3/6
14. Minnesota - Big Ten Tourney 3/11
15. Marshall - CUSA Tourney 3/10
16. Texas Tech - Big 12 Tourney 3/10
17. Tulsa - @ Memphis 3/6
18. North Carolina - @ Duke 3/6
19. Northeastern - Colonial Tourney 3/6
20. St. John's - Big East Tourney 3/9
21. Wiliam & Mary - Colonial Tourney 3/6
22. Lousiana Tech - @ Nevada 3/6
23. Illinois State - MVC Tourney 3/5
24. New Mexico State - @ Nevada 3/4, @ Utah State 3/6
25. Nevada - New Mexico State 3/4, Louisiana Tech 3/6
- Jason Aufderhaar - RotoKingdom Staff Writer
The founder of RotoKingdom.net has almost 20 years of fantasy sports experience. Jason is a two time winner of RotoKingdom's 20 Team Die Hard I baseball league, winning in 2002 and 2005. In 2006, Jason won RotoKingdom's 20 Team Die Hard I basketball league. That year he was also the individual champion of a 20 team website challenge baseball league versus competitors in the industry. Jason has written NBA, NFL, and NHL articles for OPEN Sports (FOX) and Fanball.