Bracketology Notes
Who's In: Marquette, Richmond, Washington, Jacksonville, Lehigh, Robert Morris, Texas Southern
Who's Out: Arizona State, North Carolina, Mississippi State, E. Tennessee State, Lafayette, Quinnipiac, Arkansas Pine Bluff
Last Four In: Marquette, Florida, Connecticut, Richmond
Top Four RPI's Out: Texas Tech (40), San Diego State (42), Dayton (43), South Florida (46)
Conferences with multiple bids...
Big East - 8 (Syracuse, Villanova, West Virginia, Georgetown, Pittsburgh, Connecticut, Louisville, Marquette)
Big 12 - 7 (Kansas, Texas, Kansas State, Baylor, Missouri, Oklahoma State, Texas A & M)
ACC - 6 (Duke, Georgia Tech, Clemson, Wake Forest, Florida State, Maryland)
Atlantic - 10 - 5 (Temple, Xavier, Rhode Island, Charlotte, Richmond)
SEC - 5 (Kentucky, Tennessee, Mississippi, Vanderbilt, Florida)
Big Ten - 4 (Michigan State, Purdue, Wisconsin, Ohio State)
PAC - 10 - 3 (California, Arizona, Washington)
Mountain West - 3 (BYU, New Mexico, UNLV)
West Coast - 2 (Gonzaga, St. Mary's, California)
Georgetown was in line for a two seed before their stunning loss to South Florida at home last night. Ohio State has been surging since the return of Evan Turner and moves up two seeds to a #5 spot. Baylor, Rhode Island, and Xavier all climbed two seeds as well since the January 29th update. Baylor posted an impressive victory at Texas and a 20 point drubbing of Iowa State last night. Rhode Island has an impressive 18-3 record and the Rams are currently ranked 12th in the RPI. Xavier has won eight of their last nine games with their only loss being a tough one at Temple.
A pair of big east teams, Connecticut and Pittsburgh have watched their stock drop dramatically over the past week. Connecticut has fallen five seeds since the last update and is in danger of remaining in the tournament after crucial losses to Providence, Marquette, and Louisville. The anticipated return of coach Jim Calhoun might be the Huskies only hope to make the big dance. Pittsburgh will likely fall out of the human polls this week and fell two seeds in this bracket prediction, after being dominated by West Virginia 70-51 last night. The Panthers have now lost four of their last five games, but can turn things around with winnable games against Seton Hall and Robert Morris next on their schedule.
A fifth Big Ten team has yet to step up, while the teams at the top of the Atlantic 10 are dominating the rest of their conference. So as of today the Atlantic 10 is looking like a strong bet to win a fifth seed. Northwestern and Minnesota have the strongest resumes for a fifth Big Ten team to this point. However, Illinois seems like the team most likely to have an opportunity to steal one of those bids from the Atlantic 10. The Illini have won 3 games in a row and face a 4 game stretch against the league's elite teams. Saturday Illinois faces Michigan State at home, then they face Wisconsin, Ohio State, and Purdue in succession. Things will not get easier after that as the Illini then visits Michigan and finishes out the season with games against Minnesota, Ohio State, and Wisconsin. In total that's 6 games against top 16 ranked opponents and seven of eight games against the top five teams in the league (excluding themselves). Not to mention that Illinois has zero remaining games against the three weakest teams in the conference.
Arizona State seems to be receiving more hype than Washington from bracketology analysts like Joe Lunardi for the Pac-10's potential third bid, but Washington has a stronger case. Arizona State dominated Washington at home, but aside from that fact everything else on Washington's resume is better. In the overall RPI Washington is 65 and Arizona State is 86. Washington has a stronger strength of schedule at 47 compared to 90 for Arizona State. The best non-conference win for the Sun Devils was over San Diego State with no other victories worth noting. Washington's best non-conference wins were not much better, but the Huskies did pull off two victories over two top 100 teams, Texas Tech and Portland. Perhaps, the most convincing note is Washington's 2-2 record versus top 50 RPI teams including a win over the premier Pac-10 team (California). Arizona State is just 1-4 versus top 50 RPI teams.
One of the toughest selections in this field was Richmond versus Dayton for a fifth Atlantic 10 spot and the last spot in the field. Yesterday I had Dayton higher, but a closer look at the two resumes changed my opinion. Dayton was the pre-season favorite to win the Atlantic 10 and played a much tougher schedule this season. While the Flyers upset Georgia Tech early in the season they still managed to lose all of their other notable non-conference games including to Villanova, Kansas State, and New Mexico. Dayton has not lost a single game by more than 8 points, but is there such a thing as a quality loss? The only bad loss the Flyers have was at St. Joe's. Dayton is ranked 43rd in the RPI with the 45th strength of schedule, but 2-5 versus top 50 RPI teams. Richmond has a slightly higher RPI at 37 with a 80 SoS and a 2-3 record verus the top 50 RPI teams. Richmond played weaker opponents, but managed to beat several of the lower seeded teams in this bracket prediction, including Missouri, Old Dominion, and Florida. The Spiders losses to VCU and Saint Louis don't look great on paper, but they are not as bad as Dayton's loss to St. Joe's. Really, you could almost flip a coin between these two teams, but Richmond receives the edge due to their slightly higher RPI and better record versus teams in the field.
South Florida and Virginia might be the two of the hottest topics in college basketball. South Florida went from barely being considered a bubble team to just outside the bracket. The Bulls are riding a four game win streak that includes back to back top 25 victories over Pittsburgh and a road victory at Georgetown. Virginia finds themselves tied atop the ACC, but we all know that the auto bids for virtually every league comes from the conference tournament winner. That leaves the Cavaliers on the outside looking in, thanks to their weak non-conference performance. Aside from a home victory versus UAB, Virginia does not have a single non-conference win over a top 100 RPI team. Virginia's three best non-conference wins are over Rider (128), Oral Roberts (131), and Cleveland State (148). The Cavalier resume also boasts losses to three "Big Six" cellar dwellers in Auburn, Penn State, and Stanford. In fact fellow ACC teams Virginia Tech and North Carolina have stronger overall resumes.
Bubble Teams
1. Dayton
2. San Diego State
3. Utah State
4. Wichita State
5. Cincinnati
6. UTEP
7. South Florida
8. Seton Hall
9. Texas Tech
10. Virginia Tech
11. VCU
12. Mississippi State
13. Minnesota
14. Tulsa
15. Northwestern
16. South Carolina
17. North Carolina
18. Memphis
19. Northeastern
20. William & Mary
21. Notre Dame
22. Virginia
23. Arizona State
24. Miami, FL
25. Illinois
26. Nevada
27. Harvard
28. St. John's
29. USC
30. Iona
31. Marshall
32. Portland
33. Alabama
34. Providence
35. Oklahoma
- Jason Aufderhaar - RotoKingdom Staff Writer
